Santa Rally or Breakdown? The Micron Test for Markets

The AI Investing Pulse

December 18th, 2025

In this Week’s Edition:

  1. Analysis - Santa Rally or Breakdown? The Micron Test for Markets

  2. Stock Ideas - Why Oracle And Unloved Software Stocks Could Power The Next AI Rally

  3. News - AMD Vs Nvidia Vs Broadcom: Three Very Different AI Plays

  4. Startups - DeepMind’s Demis Hassabis Warns Of AI Startup Bubble

  5. Trends - Stanford AI Experts Predict What Comes Next

  6. Other News - How AI Stock Market APIs Are Changing Investing

Santa Rally or Breakdown? The Micron Test for Markets

Welcome to this week’s edition, where we look at where the pressure is building, what levels matter most right now, and which names are quietly holding up while the broader market digests recent moves.

Markets have turned more technical, more selective and more cautious, even as AI fundamentals remain strong. Micron Technology ($MU) delivered genuinely strong earnings yesterday (17/12), with clear evidence of robust AI memory demand that reinforces the structural health of the AI infrastructure build-out.

However, the broader market setup remains fragile. Both the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) and the Semiconductor ETF (SMH) broke below its 50-day Moving Average (MA50) on increased volume, signalling what could be a shift in short-term momentum.

As a result, investors appear increasingly selective. Rather than broad exposure to crowded hardware trades, capital is gravitating towards individual names that can demonstrate relative strength and technical stability.

Against that backdrop, only a small number of stocks managed to be in positive territory. We look at three of the top performers, among the few names that stayed green over the past week.

Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc. $EVLV ( ▲ 1.46% )  

Sector / Industry: Industrials / Security & Protection Services
AI Stack Layer: Application & Edge (AI in Security and Physical Threat Detection)
Market Cap: $1.2B
Performance (Weekly): +1.8%
Fundamental Score: 78 / 100
Relative Strength (RS): 91 / 100
AIIP Ranking: Watchlist

What It Does
Evolv provides AI-driven physical security solutions, utilising advanced sensors and AI algorithms for threat detection in digital infrastructure and enterprise environments.

Why It Stands Out This Week

While the market broke below its 50-day moving average, Evolv posted a 1.8% gain and saw its Relative Strength increase by more than 15 points to 91.

Technically, EVLV is sitting directly on its 50-day moving average, a level often watched closely as potential support during broader market pullbacks.

With a Fundamental Score of 78 and a RS of 91, Evolv has qualified for the AIIP Watchlist, highlighting rotation into high-growth Application and Edge players that are decoupling from the semiconductor cycle.

Tesla, Inc. $TSLA ( ▼ 4.62% )  

Sector / Industry: Consumer Cyclical / Auto Manufacturers
AI Stack Layer: Application & Edge (AI in Autonomous Driving, Robotics)
Market Cap: $1.5T
Performance (Weekly): +4.6%
Fundamental Score: 68 / 100
Relative Strength (RS): 46 / 100
AIIP Ranking: No Ranking

What It Does
Tesla is a leader in applied AI, using artificial intelligence across autonomous driving, robotics and energy systems.

Why It Stands Out This Week
Tesla was one of the few mega-cap stocks to finish the week higher (+4.6%), standing out against widespread weakness across technology and semiconductors.

From a technical perspective, TSLA remains above its key moving averages and has recently tested the top of its prior range from last December, a level that often acts as an important reference point for trend continuation or consolidation.

Twilio Inc. $TWLO ( ▲ 1.25% )  

Sector / Industry: Communication Services / Internet Content & Information
AI Stack Layer: Application & Edge (AI in Communications and APIs)
Market Cap: $21.1B
Performance (Weekly): +3.7%
Fundamental Score: 73 / 100
Relative Strength (RS): 69 / 100
AIIP Ranking: Fundamental

What It Does
Twilio integrates AI into its communication APIs for messaging and contact centres, enabling automated and personalised customer engagement.

Why It Stands Out This Week
Twilio is currently ranked as a Fundamental Candidate with a Score of 73.

The company shows an explosive EPS Growth Forecast, pointing to meaningful operational leverage.

Technically, TWLO remains above its key moving averages and is trading within roughly 10% of its prior top from February 2025, a level that becomes increasingly relevant if broader market conditions begin to stabilise.

Its positive weekly performance reinforces the theme of selective interest in software and application-layer names.

Final Take

Micron’s earnings were strong and clearly confirmed ongoing AI demand, but the technical picture across the market has become more cautious.

Both QQQ and SMH breaking below their 50-day moving averages on increased volume highlight a meaningful shift in near-term risk appetite, particularly within semiconductors. A reclaim of the 50-day moving average would help stabilise confidence, but even then the environment remains defensive. Failure to do so would reinforce the need for continued selectivity and risk awareness.

The next few days will be important to watch. Micron is trading around 10% higher in pre-market hours, and how that strength holds during regular trading will be closely monitored as a sentiment gauge for the wider AI complex.

For now, the small group of stocks that remain green, including Evolv ($EVLV), Tesla ($TSLA) and Twilio ($TWLO), suggests that capital may also be rotating rather than simply exiting. In cautious conditions, relative strength and the ability to hold key technical levels are becoming increasingly important.

Disclaimer - This content is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, personal recommendations, or an invitation to engage in any investment activity. The information presented is derived from publicly available sources and should not be solely relied upon for making investment decisions. Always consult with a qualified financial professional before making investment choices. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.

About AIIP - The AIIP Index tracks 173 AI-focused public companies across the full AI stack, serving as our benchmark for sector performance. All scores are proprietary and calculated using data from Finbox (powered by S&P Global Intelligence). AIIP Total Score (0–100) combines metrics for sales and EPS growth, financial quality, and valuation to assess overall business strength. AIIP Relative Strength (RS) Score measures a stock’s price performance relative to the AIIP 173 AI stocks. Ranking Status is based on score combinations: Fundamental: Total Score ≥ 70, RS < 80. Momentum: RS ≥ 80, Total Score < 70. Watchlist: Total Score ≥ 70 and RS ≥ 80

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TOP AI STOCKS PERFORMANCE

COMPANY

SECTOR

WEEKLY

Nutanix (NTNX)

Technology

5.9%

Tesla (TSLA)

Consumer Discretionary

4.6%

Twilio (TWLO)

Technology

3.7%

TOP AI ETFs PERFORMANCE

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KraneShares (AGIX)

AI & Tech

-4.7%

Global X (AIQ)

AI & Tech

-5.2%

Robo Global (THNQ)

Global AI

-6.8%

AI STOCKS IDEAS

Why Oracle And Unloved Software Stocks Could Power The Next AI RallyMarketWatch - Full article

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Why Warren Buffett Is Selling Apple And Buying AI ExposureThe Motley Fool
Full article

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AI STOCKS & ETFS NEWS

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This analysis compares Nvidia’s AI dominance, AMD’s diversified strategy and Broadcom’s steady cash flows, showing how each company offers a distinct way to gain exposure to the AI boom.
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Should Nvidia Worry About AMD And Google In 2026The Globe And Mail
Rising competition from AMD and Google could pressure Nvidia on pricing and efficiency, but its powerful software ecosystem and performance leadership may help defend its market position.
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Software stocks have suffered heavy losses in 2025, particularly in enterprise and ad tech. Select AI-focused names, including Blackberry and Rubrik, are seen as potential recovery candidates.
Full article

What Investors Need To Know About AI StocksInvestor’s Business Daily
A broad overview of artificial intelligence stocks, highlighting key companies, market trends and the forces shaping the next phase of AI-driven growth.
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Google Emerges As The Big Tech AI WinnerFortune
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Full article

AI STARTUPS

DeepMind’s Demis Hassabis Warns Of AI Startup BubbleDigit
Google DeepMind CEO Demis Hassabis says the AI startup boom is overhyped and due for a correction, arguing that valuations have run ahead of real technological progress.
Full article

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Databricks has reached a $134 billion valuation after raising more than $4 billion, supported by strong revenue growth and rising enterprise demand for data and AI platforms.
Full article

Stanford AI Experts Predict What Comes NextStanford HAI
Stanford researchers expect a shift towards rigorous evaluation, transparency and governance in AI by 2026, with no near-term arrival of artificial general intelligence.
Full article

Bernstein AI Experts Share Their 2026 OutlookInc.
Sanford C. Bernstein’s AI specialists predict major capability improvements by 2026, wider business adoption and growing economic impact, alongside increasing regulatory pressure.
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OTHERS

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AI-powered stock market APIs are reshaping investment strategies through real-time data, predictive analytics and automation, blending machine efficiency with human judgement.
Full article

Is China’s DeepSeek Using Smuggled Nvidia ChipsPhoneArena
Reports suggest DeepSeek may have acquired Nvidia GPUs through illicit channels to train next-generation AI models, though Nvidia denies any evidence of wrongdoing.
Full article

Disclaimer - The information contained on this newsletter does not constitute investment advice or a personal recommendation, nor is it an invitation or inducement to engage in investment activity. You should seek independent financial and, if appropriate, legal advice as to the suitability of any investment decision. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The value of investments, and the income from them, can fall as well as rise. You may not get back the full amount invested and, in some cases, nothing at all. The information presented is based on publicly available data and sources believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions can change rapidly, and the information provided may no longer be up to date. This content is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial, legal, or tax advice. Data sources: S&P Global Market Intelligence