The AI Investing Pulse

April 17th, 2025

In this Week’s Edition:

1. Analysis - Nvidia Takes a $5.5B Hit: How U.S. Policy Is Reshaping the AI Chip Race

2. Stock Ideas - 3 Great Quantum Computing Stocks

3. News - Microsoft Stock in the Face of Macro Weakness

4. Startups - Global VC Investment Rises In Q1'25

5. Trends - Agentic AI in Action: Practical Strategies for Automation and Insights

6. Other News - How AI is Reshaping the Future of Hollywood and Storytelling

Nvidia Takes a $5.5B Hit: How U.S. Policy Is Reshaping the AI Chip Race

⚠️ What Just Happened

Nvidia is facing one of its toughest policy headwinds yet. In a recent filing, the company announced a $5.5 billion charge linked to unsellable inventory and supplier obligations — all tied to its H20 chip, which has now been swept up in a fresh wave of U.S. export restrictions.

These updated rules prohibit the sale of certain high-performance AI chips to China, Hong Kong, and Macau without a licence, even if those chips were previously designed to comply with earlier regulations. It’s part of Washington’s broader push to limit China’s access to cutting-edge semiconductor tech.

📉 Impact on Semiconductor Stocks

The broader hardware and infrastructure stock group is now down 23% year to date, reflecting growing market unease around regulatory pressure, slowing hyperscaler demand, and shifting global supply strategies.

Nvidia $NVDA ( ▼ 2.87% )  
Following the announcement of a $5.5 billion charge linked to unsellable H20 chips, Nvidia’s shares fell by 6.9% yesterday. The market’s reaction reflects a broader sensitivity to regulatory escalation, even as Nvidia remains a leader in AI infrastructure and performance.

Advanced Micro Devices $AMD ( ▼ 0.9% )  
AMD saw a similar decline of over 7.3%, despite not being explicitly targeted by the latest U.S. export rules. Its MI300-series chips are viewed as strategically significant, placing the company under the same regulatory lens as Nvidia in terms of future risk.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC)
Shares of TSMC, Nvidia’s key manufacturing partner, dipped nearly 3.6%, driven by concerns over downstream demand disruption and production realignment caused by geopolitical pressure.

ASML
ASML came under pressure following its Q1 2025 earnings release on 16 April. The company reported lower-than-expected net bookings (€3.6 billion), sending its shares down by around 7.1%. Management cited macroeconomic caution and the uncertain impact of escalating U.S. export restrictions on demand for advanced chipmaking equipment.

🏗️ Nvidia’s $500 Billion Countermove

While the export blow is significant, Nvidia isn’t standing still. The company has announced a sweeping plan to invest up to $500 billion over four years in building a fully U.S.-based AI infrastructure.

That includes Blackwell chip production in Arizona (with TSMC), supercomputer assembly in Texas (with Foxconn and Wistron), and advanced packaging and testing through Amkor and SPIL. The move aligns with U.S. policy incentives and aims to make Nvidia’s supply chain less vulnerable to geopolitical shocks.

⚖️ Risks & Opportunities

The semiconductor sector is now navigating a landscape shaped as much by policy as by performance. Heightened regulatory scrutiny, export restrictions, and geopolitical tension, especially involving China, are injecting volatility into earnings and complicating supply chains. Global market instability, particularly across Asia, may persist as policies evolve.

Yet, this disruption is also creating openings. Companies that move quickly to localise production, diversify demand, and align with industrial strategies like the U.S. CHIPS Act may strengthen their long-term position. Nvidia’s $500 billion domestic pivot signals a broader shift in where advantage may be found with markets such as India, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia rising in strategic relevance.

🔭 What to Watch

Over the next quarter, these questions will shape the sector’s trajectory:

• Will U.S. export controls expand further?

• How will China respond — with retaliation, innovation, or redirection?

• Can Nvidia’s domestic buildout scale fast enough to maintain leadership?

• How do rivals like AMD and TSMC adjust their global strategies?

💡 Final Thought

Nvidia’s $5.5B hit isn’t just a financial write-down, it’s a signal. The global chip race is no longer driven by technology alone. Policy, geography, and supply chain control are now just as critical.

The AI chip race is well underway and it’s becoming clear that the winners won’t just be those who innovate the fastest, but also those who adapt the smartest. Policy, production, and positioning now matter as much as performance.

_{Disclaimer - This content is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, personal recommendations, or an invitation to engage in any investment activity. The information presented is derived from publicly available sources and should not be solely relied upon for making investment decisions. Always consult with a qualified financial professional before making investment choices. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.}

TOP AI STOCKS

TOP AI ETFs

AI STOCKS IDEAS 

3 Great Quantum Computing Stocks - The Motley Fool

Two brilliant AI stocks down 45% and 48% - The Globe and Mail

Watch Palantir Levels as Stock Continues Recent Recovery - Yahoo Finance

AI STOCKS & ETFs NEWS 

Microsoft Stock in the Face of Macro Weakness - IBD - Microsoft's stock has faced a decline due to macroeconomic challenges and AI spending concerns, yet analysts remain optimistic about its long-term growth. 

Trump's Tariffs on Chinese Parts for Cybercab, Semi Disrupt Tesla's US Production  - Investing.com - Trump's tariffs on Chinese parts have halted Tesla's plans to source components for its Cybercab and Semi vehicles.

Quantum Computing Could Change Science Forever If It Works - FastCompany - Quantum computing has the potential to revolutionise scientific research, particularly in chemistry and drug discovery.

AI STARTUPS

Global VC Investment Rises In Q1'25  - KPMG - Global venture capital investment reached a seven-quarter high in Q4'24, driven by AI funding. The outlook for Q1'25 remains positive, with expectations for a stronger IPO market.

Alphabet and Nvidia Bet on Openai Co-Founder Sutskever's $32B Ai Startup - Markets Insider -  Ilya Sutskever's AI startup, Safe Superintelligence, has raised $2 billion with backing from Alphabet and Nvidia.

MIT Entrepreneurs Explain What Founders Need to Know Now - MIT - Insights from MIT entrepreneurs emphasize the importance of adaptability, risk management, and wisely leveraging AI to navigate challenges.

AI TRENDS

Agentic AI in Action: Practical Strategies for Automation and Insights in B2B  - DEVPRO - How Agentic AI streamlines B2B operations through automation and data-driven decision-making, enhancing efficiency and strategic applications across various contexts.

ArtTech Trends Shaping the Future of Art - Trendhunter - Trends include the integration of new technologies in art, a rise in nature-inspired themes, and an emphasis on inclusivity and large-scale installations.

AI Data Center Growth Point Big Channel Opportunity - Channel Futures - The surge in AI is driving data center growth, increasing energy demands, and presenting significant market opportunities for infrastructure development and innovation in sustainability solutions.

OTHER

How AI is Quietly Reshaping the Future of Hollywood and Storytelling - Tumirador - AI is revolutionizing Hollywood by enhancing creative processes and reducing costs while raising concerns about job displacement and ethical implications.

The power struggle behind AI's growth - RC Wireless News - As AI's energy demands surge, tech and energy companies adapt strategies for sustainable power generation.

_{Disclaimer - The information contained on this newsletter does not constitute investment advice or a personal recommendation, nor is it an invitation or inducement to engage in investment activity. You should seek independent financial and, if appropriate, legal advice as to the suitability of any investment decision. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The value of investments, and the income from them, can fall as well as rise. You may not get back the full amount invested and, in some cases, nothing at all. The information presented is based on publicly available data and sources believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions can change rapidly, and the information provided may no longer be up to date. This content is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial, legal, or tax advice. Data sources: S&P Global Market Intelligence}